For the first time in 44 years, China has tested a long-range missile capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
Three countries received prior warnings before the test. "We are entering a new era," says American expert Jeffrey Lewis.
China announced that its military had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The missile landed in international waters in the Pacific Ocean, carrying a harmless mock warhead. According to a statement from the Ministry of Defense, the test was part of an annual exercise and was not directed at any specific country or target, according to AP.
However, the state-controlled English-language newspaper South China Morning Post emphasized in its reporting that the missile is capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
Three countries warned
The exact location of the missile's impact is not known, but various international media reports suggest it may have landed somewhere in a vast area between the southern coasts of Hawaii and northern Tahiti.
Japanese news outlet Kyodo News, citing "well-informed sources," reported that the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand were warned in advance of the missile test. The report states that Japan’s coast guard received a message from China as early as Monday afternoon, indicating that "space debris" would fall in three designated areas—two off the coast of the Philippine island of Luzon and one south of Hawaii.
First test in 44 years
The missile was reportedly launched from China's southern island of Hainan, marking the first known missile test into the Pacific Ocean since 1980. Typically, China's missile launches are conducted from the east coast and aimed at desert areas in the country's western regions, according to AP.
"When they haven’t done something like this for 44 years and then suddenly do it—it’s significant," said James Acton, deputy director of nuclear policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in an interview with AP.
He views the test as a response to the U.S., which launched two intercontinental Minuteman III missiles from California earlier this June.
"It's China's way of saying: Just like you, we’re not ashamed to have nuclear weapons, and we will act like a powerful nuclear state."
"A new era"
Jeffrey Lewis, a missile expert at the U.S.-based James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, believes the missile launch is intended to showcase China’s military capabilities to both the world and its domestic audience.
"We are entering a new era where the U.S. and China are engaged in what feels like an arms race. China's government has historically prioritized diplomatic concerns over operational readiness. But this is simply a different China now. It's a China that doesn’t feel constrained," he told AP.
Tensions in the region are already high, particularly concerning Taiwan and the Philippines, where the U.S. recently deployed Typhon medium-range missiles. After China's missile test on Wednesday, two Philippine government sources confirmed to AP that the country had agreed with the U.S. to keep the missile system in place as a deterrent against China.
Missile capabilities
The Chinese missile is believed to be the Dongfeng-41 type. It has three rocket stages, a range of up to 15,000 kilometers, and can carry up to ten nuclear warheads, each capable of striking different targets simultaneously, according to Army Recognition.
China's nuclear doctrine states that the country will never use nuclear weapons for offensive purposes. The Chinese government has never disclosed official figures regarding its nuclear arsenal, but international analysts estimate that it is growing at the fastest rate in the world. According to the Pentagon, China had over 500 nuclear warheads last year and aims to double that number by 2030, reports Newsweek.
For comparison, Russia currently has 4,380 nuclear warheads, while the U.S. has 3,748.
Reflection on nuclear testing
While China, like other nuclear powers, has the right to conduct such missile tests, it’s important to reflect on the broader implications. The global presence of nuclear weapons creates a complex and dangerous geopolitical landscape. While tests like these may demonstrate military capability, they also increase tensions and fears of an arms race. Ideally, no country—whether China, the U.S., or any other nuclear power—would need to conduct these tests. The hope is for a future where diplomatic efforts take precedence, and nations work toward reducing nuclear arsenals rather than showcasing them.
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